Nahida (@mentabe_08)
2024.11.27 05:51 Zestyclose5527 Nahida (@mentabe_08)
 | submitted by Zestyclose5527 to KusanaliMains [link] [comments] |
2024.11.27 05:51 da7GR Saw a girl with tons of piercings, couldn't stop myself from praising the lord
This isn't meant as an offence to anyone - I'm half Christian myself. But let me know if you guys think I crossed the line?
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2024.11.27 05:51 Nexus258 Toonami - Invincible Fight Girl Episode 6 Promo
 | submitted by Nexus258 to nexus2126 [link] [comments] |
2024.11.27 05:51 DreamPirates Sonalee Kulkarni Benodekar Marathi Actress #SonaleeKulkarni
 | submitted by DreamPirates to dreampirates [link] [comments] |
2024.11.27 05:51 Ok-Thought1021 CAS gurgaon ticket for sale GA front
10k
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2024.11.27 05:51 AtomHermit 从第二个角度分析新冠期间中国死亡率数据：造假者在中央
上篇文章：
https://www.reddit.com/DoubanGoosegroup/comments/1assw53/关于新冠期间中国死亡率数据造假的分析/
在上篇文章里，我通过公布的死亡率尾数的数字分布异常，确认了几个地区的死亡率有造假嫌疑。这篇文章要分析的问题是，造假数据是在各个地区产生的还是在中央政府汇总了所有数据之后产生的？要回答这个问题，我们就要先知道这两种造假会在数字频率分布上造成什么区别。
首先，人在造假时会尽量掩盖造假痕迹。比如造假者不会把所有尾数都写成3，而是会从0到9之间随意取数，以显得尾数是自然发生的。注意这里是“随意”取，而不是真的随机数，因为人脑并不懂如何产生随机数。因此，这样的分布就会显出人为的刻意。如果造假者是在中央政府，同时在31个数据上造假，那么他下意识的行为就是，除了他偏好的数字（04）之外，其余的数尽量让0到9每个数出现次数差不多。这样的话，数字出现频率应该呈现两个异常。一个异常位于出现频率极高（8次）的小峰来自造假者对某个数字的偏好，另一个异常位于出现频率略低于平均频率（3次）的大峰来自其余数字。
反之，如果造假发生在各个省市，那么每个地区的人并不知道其他地区的数据，因此最后产生的总分布，只会有一个因为造假产生的位于高频率的小峰，而不会出现位于2和3之间的大峰。
根据这个分析，我们看2021年和2022年死亡率尾数的频率分布：
| 频率 | 预期个数 | 2021年实际个数 | 2022年实际个数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.76 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 2.63 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4.38 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | 4.70 | 3 | 5 |
| 4 | 3.66 | 4 | 2 |
| 5 | 2.20 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | 1.06 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | 0.42 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 0.14 | 0 | 2 |
2021年死亡率整体造假虽然没有明显的统计证据，但是从2021年到2022年各省市的死亡率变化分布能够看出造假痕迹：
| 省市 | 2021年（‰） | 2022年（‰） | 变化 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 北京 | 5.39 | 5.72 | 0.33 |
| 天津 | 6.23 | 6.43 | 0.20 |
| 河北 | 7.58 | 7.80 | 0.22 |
| 山西 | 7.32 | 7.73 | 0.41 |
| 内蒙古 | 7.54 | 7.83 | 0.29 |
| 辽宁 | 8.89 | 9.04 | 0.15 |
| 吉林 | 8.08 | 8.39 | 0.31 |
| 黑龙江 | 8.70 | 9.09 | 0.39 |
| 上海 | 5.59 | 5.96 | 0.37 |
| 江苏 | 6.77 | 7.04 | 0.27 |
| 浙江 | 5.90 | 6.24 | 0.34 |
| 安徽 | 8.00 | 8.09 | 0.09 |
| 福建 | 6.28 | 6.52 | 0.24 |
| 江西 | 6.71 | 6.94 | 0.23 |
| 山东 | 7.36 | 7.64 | 0.28 |
| 河南 | 7.36 | 7.50 | 0.14 |
| 湖北 | 7.86 | 8.09 | 0.23 |
| 湖南 | 8.28 | 8.54 | 0.26 |
| 广东 | 4.83 | 4.97 | 0.14 |
| 广西 | 6.80 | 7.08 | 0.28 |
| 海南 | 6.01 | 6.16 | 0.15 |
| 重庆 | 8.04 | 8.09 | 0.05 |
| 四川 | 8.74 | 9.04 | 0.30 |
| 贵州 | 7.19 | 7.32 | 0.13 |
| 云南 | 8.12 | 8.21 | 0.09 |
| 西藏 | 5.47 | 5.48 | 0.01 |
| 陕西 | 7.38 | 7.64 | 0.26 |
| 甘肃 | 8.26 | 8.51 | 0.25 |
| 青海 | 6.91 | 7.23 | 0.32 |
| 宁夏 | 6.09 | 6.19 | 0.10 |
| 新疆 | 5.60 | 5.76 | 0.16 |
因此，2021年和2022年中国公布的死亡率整体都是假数据。
submitted by AtomHermit to DoubanGoosegroup [link] [comments]
2024.11.27 05:51 Practical_Sense5262 Transform Your Mind: Practicing Gratitude And The Fruits of the Spirit
 | Transform Your Mind: Practicing Gratitude And The Fruits of the SpiritBook 2 in the Transform Your Mind Series In the journey of spiritual growth, becoming more like Christ is not about acquiring knowledge or ticking off religious milestones—it’s about true transformation. Transform Your Mind: Practicing Gratitude And The Fruits of the Spirit invites readers to dive into the powerful process of becoming a reflection of Christ’s character in everyday life. Building on the teachings of Galatians 5:22-23, this book delves into the nine Fruits of the Spirit, offering practical, biblical insights on how to nurture qualities like love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness, and self-control. Through thought-provoking reflections and actionable steps, you’ll learn how to grow spiritually, emotionally, and relationally as you actively cultivate these divine attributes. The book also explores the transformative power of gratitude, showing how a thankful heart is key to unlocking the full potential of the Fruits of the Spirit in your life. As you apply these principles, you’ll experience greater peace, joy, and a deeper connection with God, while reflecting His love to the world around you. This book will equip you to live out your faith in practical ways, guiding you toward spiritual maturity and the abundant life promised. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DP1RN7FP https://preview.redd.it/eal58up4vd3e1.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=48703f6b9c99d51a3e10881afe60079127b28044 submitted by Practical_Sense5262 to Julies_Space [link] [comments] |
2024.11.27 05:51 KDeezBurner Top 10 Worst Performances of the Night 🤢 Kyshawn George Night 🤮 (November 26, 2024)
| Rank | Name | Min | FG | FT | 3PM | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | Fantasy Points | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyshawn George | 30:40 | 3/11 | 0/0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.3 | -0.93 |
| 2 | Bilal Coulibaly | 36:52 | 3/11 | 2/3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21.1 | -0.86 |
| 3 | D'Angelo Russell | 28:48 | 5/13 | 5/8 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 27.6 | -0.81 |
| 4 | Jaden McDaniels | 40:15 | 4/16 | 0/0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21.0 | -0.75 |
| 5 | Rob Dillingham | 24:28 | 5/13 | 0/0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25.5 | -0.64 |
| 6 | AJ Green | 28:20 | 3/7 | 0/0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12.2 | -0.64 |
| 7 | Taurean Prince | 31:22 | 3/6 | 2/2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12.6 | -0.55 |
| 8 | Harrison Barnes | 27:10 | 2/6 | 4/5 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25.1 | -0.48 |
| 9 | Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 30:18 | 6/7 | 1/1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17.9 | -0.44 |
| 10 | Brice Sensabaugh | 26:32 | 6/11 | 0/0 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16.0 | -0.39 |
Credits to Basketball Monster for the data!
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2024.11.27 05:51 PoetZealousideal110 Coffee table I’m working on.
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2024.11.27 05:51 Novel_Economist_3622 Dm para hablar de su culo gordo
Quien quiera, abra dm
submitted by Novel_Economist_3622 to valerialcalaa_ [link] [comments]
2024.11.27 05:51 Parking_Sail_361 Level 70
Help with rewards from reddit
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2024.11.27 05:51 Double-Rub-6983 Balken aufdoppeln / stützen - Ideen
 | Der Balken liegt in der Vollziegelwand auf beiden Seiten. In der Mitte (beim Pfeil) ist er gerissen und hing über einige Jahre. Das Zeug darunter ist aus Stahlhohlprofilen verschweißt und gefällt mir nicht, da gar nicht in die Wand eingenistet und in der Mitte verschweißt. Immerhin ist der kaputte Balken jetzt begradigt. Was gibt es für schlaue Möglichkeiten ihn zu verstärken, aufdoppeln oder stützen? Danach will ich den Stahlprofil entfernen, denn aus meiner Sicht nur gefährlich. PS: bitte nur in Maßen über den Rest des Daches lachen. Jetzt geht es nur um den Balken. Danke! submitted by Double-Rub-6983 to holzwerken [link] [comments] |
2024.11.27 05:51 kkast15 820 granted. Is there anyone who was granted 801 weeks / months after 820
I had my 820 granted yesterday and was hopeful 801 would come in but unfortunately it did not. Has anyone been invited to apply before 2 years? Or did you wait 2 years before you can apply?
Been with my partner for more than 4 years, lived together for 3.5 years and married for 1.7 years.
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2024.11.27 05:51 OsirisAI Stock Information for WTI - 3h
#WTI #3h #Commodities───────────
Ensemble model * Overview: The synthetic investment attractiveness indicator equals -22 (out of +/-100). The model ensemble suggests the trading will tend to be unattractive in the nearest future.
Optimal past * Optimal past: The optimal lookback period for modelling is currently 136 candles. The market is currently bearish, depreciating by 4.0% during the latest phase.
Elliot Waves * Elliot Waves: The market's trend has changed and currently goes up.
- Elliot Waves Settings: Elliot Waves were updated. The current wavelength is 13.
- BRW VaR at confidence level 95.0%: in the next candle, the price will fluctuate around 78.29 and with 95.0% probability will not go below 77.49 or above 79.09.
- Historical simulation at confidence level 95.0%: in the next candle, the price will fluctuate around 78.29 and with 95.0% probability will not go below 77.58 or above 79.07.
- Multifractal range at confidence level 95.0%: in the next 256 candles, the price will fluctuate around 78.68 and with 95.0% probability will not go below 63.16 or above 91.55.
- Fibonacci with seven retracements: the price is likely to rebound downward from the nearest Fibonacci resistance of 78.4 at the level of 50.0%. The nearest Fibonacci support is 76.91 at the level of 38.2%.
- Fibonacci with five retracements: the price is likely to rebound downward from the nearest Fibonacci resistance of 78.4 at the level of 50.0%. The nearest Fibonacci support is 76.91 at the level of 38.2%.
- Fibonacci with four retracements: the price is likely to rebound upward from the nearest Fibonacci support of 76.91 at the level of 38.2%. The nearest Fibonacci resistance is 79.89 at the level of 61.8%.
- MVaR bounds at confidence level 95.0%: in the next candle, the price will fluctuate around 78.32 and with 95.0% probability will not go below 77.52 or above 78.99.
- AR model at confidence level 95.0%: the AR model forecasts a return of 0.0003% in the next candle, the price will fluctuate around 78.31 and with 95.0% probability will not go below 77.55 or above 79.07.
- Power law: According to the indicator, the stability of the market is uncertain
- Student degrees of freedom: According to the indicator, the stability of the market is uncertain
- Tukey lambda: According to the indicator, the stability of the market is uncertain
Distribution analysis * Best-fit distribution: Best-fit distribution has changed, and now it is Power
───────────
Not investment advice.
#WTI #3h #trading #Distribution analysis
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2024.11.27 05:51 YummyxYum Mina
 | submitted by YummyxYum to twicemedia [link] [comments] |
2024.11.27 05:51 Diana_Tramaine_420 Pain after extraction
I’ve used all my options for asking questions so wanted to reach a wide audience.
I had a tooth on the right side of bottom jaw, towards the front removed last Thursday 21/11. It was wiggly and X-rays showed bone loss?Around the tooth - it looked different to the other teeth.
Very straight forwards extraction, no pain,very little blood, no infection.
By the second day the pain started the jaw and cheek of the right side ache. Standard pain meds do nothing. It’s waking me up from sleep.
I’m now day six, dentist has checked it and says it’s all healing well, no infection, no dry sockets
But the pain!! Omg Im struggling to sleep, I can’t concentration. I’m taking Celebrex, codiene+paractomol, more codiene and Acupan. I’m using ice packs. But nothing is helping the pain.
Google says mild pain that will go away.
Any advice?
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2024.11.27 05:51 _Ethan_Hunt__ Gouri Krishna
 | submitted by _Ethan_Hunt__ to MalluHot [link] [comments] |
2024.11.27 05:51 Next-Business5733 Nasty sex party 🎉🥂 Hmu on telegram @cassy908
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2024.11.27 05:51 Humourbeing7 Guys who've been reading Dostoevesky, Kafka, Tolstoy etc. What is the change you start to see in yourself and in your perception?
Hi guys, I'm the guy who posted few days back meme on dostoevesky "that everyone is reading dostoevesky nowadays." I would like to ask and know what are the changes you've seen in yourself and in your perception towards life and in general since you start reading dostoevesky, Kafka, Tolstoy etc?
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2024.11.27 05:51 M4SS1VEy Where to go from here
 | I’m happy with the simple character drawings I’m capable of, but would love advice on where to go next and how to do it. I’d like to add more detail to my people. Not necessarily to make them more realistic, but to better portray the characters I’m drawing, and make them just look better. Are there simple details that would help? Is the answer in shading/coloring, and if so, how? Any advice would be appreciated. I attached two recent sketches for reference submitted by M4SS1VEy to Drawinghelp [link] [comments] |
2024.11.27 05:51 Swimming_Hornet_3900 What is the name of your mobile phone?
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2024.11.27 05:51 Asuzagawa_Kotaro The Detoxifying Antioxidant for Skin and Liver Health "Burdock Root Arctiin"
 | Burdock Root Arctiin, a bioactive lignan found in burdock root, is celebrated for its powerful detoxifying and antioxidant properties. This natural compound supports liver function by aiding in the removal of toxins, while its anti-inflammatory effects promote clearer, healthier skin. Known for enhancing collagen production, Arctiin helps maintain skin elasticity and combat signs of aging. Additionally, it supports immune health and balances oxidative stress, making it a valuable ally in holistic wellness. For premium Burdock Root Arctiin, trust Nutri Avenue to deliver the highest quality ingredients for your nutritional and skincare formulations. #NutriAvenue #SupplementIngredients #DetoxAndSkinHealth https://preview.redd.it/4gm6lzx4vd3e1.jpg?width=275&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9d9a5a7b05b15b7ab50b585d4427b35d7bf2ab37 submitted by Asuzagawa_Kotaro to NutriAvenue [link] [comments] |
2024.11.27 05:51 Lbsigman Brake parts backordered? - 2024 ZR2 Bison
Having some brake issues after 1,300 miles on my '24 ZR2 Bison. Yesterday in a parking lot, as I was getting ready to pull into a spot, the brake pedal went to the floor, and I practically lost all braking power. I ended up using the e-brake to bring the truck to a stop. I turned the truck off, then on again, and the issue disappeared. No warning lights and no error codes when I scanned the truck.
Found this thread (here), and my rotors look identical; the front driver’s side rotor is shiny, and the wheel is covered in brake dust compared to the front passenger side, which looks like a rotor fresh from a brand-new brake job and almost zero brake dust on the wheel.
I heard from the service advisor that GM is backordered on brake parts, which is lovely. At least the truck is a second vehicle I can be without for some time. Anyone have any similar issues with the braking system on these 3rd Gen trucks, and what has the dealership done to address it?
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2024.11.27 05:51 jessicatheserrano racing in wvc near the valley fair mall
so me and my friends almost got ran over by a car when we where walking across the crosswalk. we’re pretty sure the car was racing with another car who stopped in time. literally we had the right of way and everything. we stopped because we knew he had no intention of stopping but it was so close. it’s ridiculous
submitted by jessicatheserrano to SaltLakeCity [link] [comments]
2024.11.27 05:51 Lazy-Pop-9510 Sanitizing Classroom Toys?
A lot of kiddos get sick around this time of year, and I'm wondering if you clean the toys they play with in order to slow the spread of germs? I'm thinking of throwing the Legos in a basket in my dishwasher at home 😂 just wondering what other teachers/parents do
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