PLTR: They said the quiet part out loud (DD)

2024.11.25 03:23 Virtual_Seaweed7130 PLTR: They said the quiet part out loud (DD)

PLTR: They said the quiet part out loud (DD) On November 15, 2024, PLTR's board member Alex Moore tweeted,
We are moving u/PalantirTech to Nasdaq because it will force billions in ETF buying and deliver 'tendies' to our retail investors. Player haters be aware that we've been hated for decades (plural). Everything we do is to reward and support our retail diamondhands following.
Immediately afterwards, he deleted his tweet.
At first glance, the statement seems harmless, and even obvious. Companies are added/removed from passive indexes every day, and it's not a crime to want to deliver shareholder returns. There's no problem with boasting about passive index inclusion. It doesn't affect the fundamental business anyway.
Right?
I think otherwise.
I Alex Moore said Palantir's quiet part out loud. I contend that this has been Palantir's gameplan since day one. The stock's performance, ridiculous valuation, and mania all points back to one fundamental goal of the company's management: manipulating stock market indexes to juice valuation.
The Evidence (s/o Mike Green):
Part 1: The Listing
Companies generally list via a direct listing, traditional IPO, or SPAC. For a company the size of PLTR, a SPAC was out of the question. They had to choose between an IPO and direct listing. Let's take a look at both.
Traditional IPO: Typically involves investment banks underwriting the deal, setting a price, and selling shares to institutional investors like mutual funds or hedge funds. Importantly, these shares are not part of the stock's free float, and insiders must dilute themselves in order to create new shares to sell on the public market.
Direct Listing: In a direct listing, a company offers existing shares directly to the public without issuing new shares or raising capital. This avoids traditional IPO underwriters (investment bank). The free float is immediately determined by shares held by insiders available to sell. Palantir chose this route.
Takeaway: In a direct listing, all existing shares held by insiders, employees, and early investors become eligible for public trading immediately. There is no lock-up period (common in traditional IPOs, where insiders are restricted from selling shares for 6–12 months). This approach ensures a larger float right from the start, as insiders can sell their shares directly on the public market if they choose, increasing the number of shares available for trading.
Why is this important?
Palantir almost immediately qualified for index inclusion upon its first day of listing. Vanguard and others were forced to buy shares on the first week of listing because Palantir met the necessary requirements for most broad market indexes:
  1. Market Cap - This is self explanatory, Palantir began listing at ~17B mcap, rendering it eligible for indexes like the S&P500.
  2. Free Float - Indexes are not just weighted by a company's market cap. The S&P500, for example, uses Float-Adjusted Market Cap, adjusting the company’s market capitalization based on its free float to determine its weight in the index. Float-Adjusted Market Cap=Share Price×Free Float Shares
  3. Liquidity - Also a no brainer, considering the number of shares immediately available for the public, and the hype around the stock.
It doesn't take a genius to see it. As insiders sell shares, the “effective float” rose, requiring extra purchases from index providers, and helping Palantir insiders exit.
Vanguard = Liquidity
Part 2: Buying a Seat at the Table
2021-2022 was tough for Palantir. The index game was faltering as net income and revenue growth lagged. This threatened their ultimate goal of S&P500 + Nasdaq 100 inclusion. They had the market cap, if they could only find a way to juice their revenue in a profitable way to get themselves over the inclusion requirements!
So, they did what any reasonable company in this situation would do, and bought customers. Financing customer growth by investing roughly $450MM in over two dozen SPACs, Palantir was basically buying revenue.
The process was straightforward:
  1. PLTR would invest in the SPAC and assume a significant controlling interest
  2. PLTR would use the SPAC's funds to purchase PLTR services
  3. Any operating losses of the SPAC company could be carefully hidden from PLTR's reporting.
Not part of operating income!
And, soon enough, PLTR was (technically) reporting profitability by GAAP standards! With the company now profitable, in 2024 it became eligible for SP500 inclusion, and was included in September 2024, coinciding with a face-melting rally.
3. The Next Frontier
To wind out its strategy, Palantir (PLTR) wants to maximize the benefits of index inclusion, capped off by its relisting to Nasdaq to position itself for entry into the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ).
The timing of the move is also suspect. The index’s modified market cap weighting system limits the concentration of its top three constituents, disproportionately favoring mid-tier companies ranked between #10 and #30 in market cap—exactly where Palantir has maneuvered itself.
This move is no coincidence. Palantir’s ownership by the big three institutional investors—Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street—has soared to an impressive 22.23%, surpassing even tech giants like Microsoft (20.5%), Apple (20.0%), and NVIDIA (20.17%). For a company that only went public in Q4-2020, this level of institutional backing is ridiculous for a company of this size.
And the insiders? They're loving the exit liquidity.
https://preview.redd.it/wrutee1isy2e1.jpg?width=1456&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=813a60573f9601133cc9d4da58892d3d4d80c578
In fact, they've been dumping into the institutions (and retail) this whole time:
https://preview.redd.it/q22a1jftsy2e1.png?width=1022&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f5ccffcee63e2974e5a6c6061c54a719418d871
"Show me the incentive, and I will tell you the outcome."
Institutional shareholders through indexes are the easiest exit liquidity in the world for insiders. They're brainless, rules-based buyers. And, once the entire world owns an equal share of your company, priced at 50x sales, and you've dumped most of your shares, you could give a fuck less what the market ultimately does with your stock!
Of course, index inclusion for this stock has coincided with a complete disconnect from the fundamentals. The net ~3B of projected inflows from the QQQ have contributed about 40-50B of market cap growth in just the past few weeks.
Overall, I think there's huge problems with how companies are intentionally trying to juice themselves into indexes, knowing it's full of bloat and thoughtless exit liquidity. PLTR is just one of many, and they're giving a master class in index manipulation as we speak.
TL;DR: The recent PLTR tweet about joining the QQQ was a deeper insight into strategic yet dubious decisions the company has made for years in order to increase institutional ownership to fund insider selling and pump the stock outside of business fundamentals.
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