Grundsätzliche Frage: Kann man Kurse mit einer Gewinnbringenden Wahrscheinlichkeit vorhersagen?

2024.11.25 18:39 Spammy34 Grundsätzliche Frage: Kann man Kurse mit einer Gewinnbringenden Wahrscheinlichkeit vorhersagen?

Ich bin der Meinung dass das nicht geht. Man kann wetten und dann Glück oder Pech haben, aber man kann nichts vorhersehen. Man konnte sich denken, dass die Kurse steigen wenn Trump gewinnt, aber man konnte nicht wissen, dass er gewinnt. Höchstens darauf wetten (und dann Glück oder Pech haben).
Das ist wie im Wettbüro, wenn Deutschland gegen Griechenland Fußball spielt. Klar, wahrscheinlich wird Deutschland gewinnen, aber darauf setzen alle, dementsprechend niedrig ist der Gewinn wenn Deutschland gewinnt.
Deswegen gibt es so gut wie keine Bewegung, wenn die FED die Zinsen wie erwartet senkt. Das wussten alle schon vorher und haben darauf gewettet. Man hätte auf eine doppelte Zinssenkung (-0,5%) wetten können, well das nicht erwartet wurde. Dann hätte man aber extra Minus gemacht, wenn es gar keine Zinssenkung gegeben hätte.
Nach dem Bekanntwerden solcher Nachrichten reagieren die Kurse sofort (Sekunden). So schnell kann keiner von uns kaufen. Eine kleine Hand voll Leute mit viel Geld (in den von ihnen gemanagten Fonds) reicht, um den Kurs zu bewegen. Teilweise machen das Computerprogramme.
Welche Informationen kann man entdecken um die Entwicklung besser vorherzusagen als solche Leute?
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2024.11.25 18:39 DarthNiouf Cable housing routing on Triban RC520

Cable housing routing on Triban RC520 submitted by DarthNiouf to bikewrench [link] [comments]

2024.11.25 18:39 WillieDFleming Datsun 4x4 / Amazon

Datsun 4x4 / Amazon I haven't been able to find this in my area, but I found it on Amazon for basically the same price as in store at Walmart. I'm pretty excited, it's a super nice truck and in my opinion, it looks better than the chase.
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2024.11.25 18:39 riddle11235 Trish Black & Red Bikini | Original Request by u/Taker9891

Trish Black & Red Bikini | Original Request by u/Taker9891 submitted by riddle11235 to WWEUpscaled [link] [comments]

2024.11.25 18:39 Decent-Yesterday554 Trabajos de traducción de textos?

Buenas!!! Quería saber si alguien tiene experiencia con trabajos de traducción escritos y si pueden recomendar empresas para aplicar a laburos así, se agradece
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2024.11.25 18:39 leonard012 Central europe, what is this fella?

Central europe, what is this fella? submitted by leonard012 to whatisthisbug [link] [comments]

2024.11.25 18:39 Correct_Wolverine282 10.5 inch ready to rail your gf ex sister irls or daughter n1

057d248cd66fdd0f970959b5ca9e60004e0083f7b9b7f57dd06b8e59a607bcf03e
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2024.11.25 18:39 Reasonable-Total-406 I have so many questions

What could have production told the new fish about what the grand prize is?
How long do the new fish think they’ll be in there?
Are there two prize pools? Or are all of them equally eligible for the 50k
If they are all on a level playing field i don’t think that seems fair to the 3 who have been here for a month. Lmk your theories about how the hell this is gonna work.
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2024.11.25 18:39 Acrobatic-Film6873 Smallest foldable e-bike?

I’m looking for an e-bike that I can fold and store in the front seat of my Sienna. Currently looking at the Lectric XP lite because I’ve had such a good experience with Lectric in the past, but looks like it might be a little too big. Any recommendations for comparable bikes that might be a little smaller would be appreciated, thanks!
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2024.11.25 18:39 thatgirlthattravels 19 [F4A] #canada / #online if you think you’re a vibe then come vibe with me!

hi!
are you in need of a new online bestie? well you’ve come to the right place cause im just the girl for you!
(disclaimer: ya girl can be a yapper, im so sorry for how long this is, but if you’re the type to read this whole thing and still be excited then i already think we’d vibe!)
im in my 2nd year of uni and i’d love to get to know some new people, talk about travel, movies, music, sports, holiday plans, summer plans, school, work and anything else you’re passionate about! im down to talk about anything and everything as long as the connection is right! from philosophy, politics to your fav meal to cook or your fav karaoke song or whatever else! vent to me about your job. tell me about your amazing relationship or vent to me about how messy the break up was; im here for the tea. tell me your fav new show or song. tell me if the current events worry you. tell me if you’re happy with life. talk to me about anything! :)
let’s see if we can vibe and become friends! if we end up clicking I would really love to form a long term friendship! :) would totally love someone I can talk to in my daily life about anything and everything but no worries if that’s not your thing!
my queer and poc community peeps to the front of the line please💕
a little mix of flirty banter and meaningful conversation would be perfect💕
send me an interesting chat and tell me about yourself! i may get flooded with a bunch of chats so if you want to stand out a little don’t just hit me with “hey”/“hi”/“what’s up”/etc. :)
✨please be able to hold a conversation✨ and hopefully you’re down to reciprocate the amount of effort that i put into our talks too!
a little more about me:

if any of that interests you send me a chat and let’s talk 💕 (i may get too many chats to reply to everyone so I apologize in advance! please keep that in mind but I’ll try to eventually get to everyone that grabs my attention thank you!)
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2024.11.25 18:39 pinotnewyork How much damage can I really do in a week?

I’m (29F, 5’7” CW 159) going on vacation for 10 days to celebrate my birthday and mark another notable event. Part of this time is a cruise, so food and alcohol is abundant and caloric. I don’t want to go crazy trying to stay under my 1550-1850 range for weight loss, but I don’t want to set myself back either. How worried do I need to be about a 10-day break?
Background: I’m trying to shave off a few pounds and get a bit more toned ahead of my wedding next June. My goal weight is 145, but really I care more about losing inches and getting rid of fat than the true number. I went from 208 to 165 between 2019 and 2021, but that 165 was very muscular. I obviously have plenty of time to lose the weight and work out post vacation, but as we all know, the holidays are a trying time for weight loss!
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2024.11.25 18:39 Holiday-South721 Any y0ng new cucks wanna learn how to be good cuck for his sis/gf? Let my 8inch teach you. Tribing and captions too. ALL PRIVATE. PROOF NEEDED. Dm me Snap/Tele: murgantic

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2024.11.25 18:39 Major_Rhubarb7272 I dont know anything about this stuffs, tried it for the first time, can anyone help me out ?

I dont know anything about this stuffs, tried it for the first time, can anyone help me out ? submitted by Major_Rhubarb7272 to Nakshatras [link] [comments]

2024.11.25 18:39 wearechop W: 3 endurance mods 2 star variety H: caps, mods or 20 leaders each

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2024.11.25 18:39 40k_crab Why can’t we have custom tags?

Please I want to make a custom flair about tyberos
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2024.11.25 18:39 KLoud9_420 Please for the love of Martha Stewart

Please for the love of Martha Stewart submitted by KLoud9_420 to MonopolyGoTrading [link] [comments]

2024.11.25 18:39 Huiper Dead Girl, Living Boy

CW: Implied Suicide
A funeral for a living boy.
There is no body in the box.
Still my mother weeps,
My father seethes a few rows behind,
I fidget in my seat,
Collecting dirty looks from the gathered parish,
I squirm under their intense gaze,
My skin starts to crawl, as though something yearns to break loose,
Scratching and clawing its way out through my flesh,
More and more eyes turn to watch.
The transformation begins.
I stand up,
I walk calmly towards the center of the pulpit,
Skin stretching and tearing away, floating out through the open windows,
I reach the altar.
The last of my old form drifts away,
The wails of my mother grow louder,
The scowl on my father's face deepens,
I grab a pen and paper, opening my heart to the page,
I write.
Dear mother and father,
I love you.
I know you love me too,
Though not as I am.
You wished the best for me, yet in your eyes
I am dead.
I am but a ghost of the other,
A bitter memory,
A curse placed upon our family,
A delusional disgrace.
If you had known me you may have liked me,
I'm funny, I'm kind, I'm smart.
But you didn't acknowledge me.
You saw her,
I did not.
I hope you do not blame yourselves,
You did nothing wrong
This was my destiny, you couldn't change it even if you tried.
So it is not your fault,
I promise.
Signed, your dead daughter,
Your living son.
Amen
I place the pen down and fold the letter in two,
Stepping down from the pulpit I walk towards my mother on her knees,
Her cheeks stained with tears that weren't for me,
They were for her.
I gently dry the lines on her face,
She doesn’t react.
I step up to the edge of the box,
And pause to look around at the people.
Seeing no warmth in their eyes, only cold stares.
I take a deep breath and step into the plush laden box,
Getting comfortable, I cross my arms and grasp the note in my hand.
The lid is closed and I am lifted,
We move away.
Away from the judgement.
Away from the heartbreak.
I am lowered and covered in dirt,
I take one last deep breath and fall asleep.
On my pillow is written:
"Loving daughter, caring sister, a life lost too soon" signed in her name.
Put to rest as the person I never was.
Another statistic.
A calm passes over me,
In another life.
Thus concludes the funeral for a dead girl.
And the murder of a living boy.
The end.
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2024.11.25 18:39 Mindyourowndamn_job trend

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2024.11.25 18:39 shoppingbabe Budget Rent A Car Black Friday Ads 2024

Follow this link for Budget Rent A Car Black Friday Ads 2024. Access the latest deals and promotions by visiting the link, featuring a constantly updated list of coupons, promo codes, and discounts.
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2024.11.25 18:39 Wise-Recognition8990 I've just finished Torna, and holy shit

I've just finished playing it. I knew basically all the tragic stuff of the ending, but I actually played and watched the scenes completely myself (I knew Milton and Hugo would die and that Mythra sank Torna, but I didn't know how it all played out... and it's even more tragic than I thought).
I liked the Jin-Malos moments and the battle was good, but when you have two mechs fighting in the air the other characters don't do much while standing there. Interesting that the Pneuma sword appeared but Mythra didn't transform into Pneuma. I guess it makes sense, as Addam couldn't control her and she used that power by herself. I'd always assumed that the different sword came with the different girl, but apparently it's not necessarily the case (also Pyra is there at the end with Addam carrying the Pneuma sword)
Damn, Mythra! The thing is, she destroyed Torna AFTER Malos went down. She didn't stop her exploding laser thing, and destroyed everything. It was completely unavoidable but she's lost it by that point. I can sort of understand Mikhail and Jin's resentment towards her later (did Mikhail see everything, like how it was Mythra that lasered the titan to death? Also how did Milton die and not him too when Malos bombarded the city and they were always together?).
I thought they'd show Lora's death, and I was surprised they didn't.
I wish we'd seen just a bit more of Addam. As I understand, he went to Leftheria to seal Pyra away, he also hid the Pneuma sword in the spirit crucible leaving Azurda to guard it and then settled in Fonsett (or somewhere else in Leftheria, but since he founded Fonsett village I assume he eventually settled there?) and the leftherians in XC2 are his descendants, wheras the tantalese like Zeke are the descendants of Zettar (that shit)..? And Zettar rose to power by force in Tantal?
Where is Spessia? Is it the name of just that town/camp and it's in Gormott, or is it another titan? The former, I presume?
We know nothing of Minoth. After an unknown amount of time he settled in Fonsa Myma and changed his name to Cole. He was a potentially interesting character but he could've had more relevance.
I guess the Ardainian emperor always dies. Before playing Torna, I was confused by the fact he and Niall look identical, and I think they also share the VA? Hugo sounds older than Niall tho. At first I thought there were blade eater shenanigans or something, but no they're just related and they look the same cuz anime logic ig.
Speaking of blade eaters, Mik. In the attack where Lora died, he probably got separated at some point and he was found by the indoline. He was experimented on and became a blade eater, and then joined Jin and Malos because he had nowhere else to go?
Iirc in the base game they said 3 titans fell in the war. I thought Mythra had killed 3 titans, but no, she sank Torna, the other was Coeia and another that I don't think is mentioned.
Is Judicium already a fallen power at the time of TTGC? It seems there weren't a lot of flesh eaters, and Jin found out how to become one from the journal of his past self, who lived about a century earlier.
Why didn't Jin return to Addam? He would've definitely helped him, and he wouldn't have joined Malos, probably. The same goes for Mikhail.
Now as for the gameplay, I liked it. The side quests were not bad. It was less of a hassle than I anticipated, doing a lot of them to progress the main story, but I also don't feel like doing itagain for now XD Should I play NG+? Is there important stuff? I don't want to lose the quests, and I've read there's one that's unlocked after you complete all of them, so I'll play a bit more in the current save, I think.
Next, I'll start XC1DE :)
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2024.11.25 18:39 Byronbay7 UP 8%

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2024.11.25 18:39 beetleman1234 Does the online component resemble that of Diablo or is it a different type of online game?

I was trying out the demo and I think the game is pretty cool, wondering about buying it on Steam, but I don't know what kind of online game this is.
I doubt it's an MMO, I guess it has lobbies.
But how do you find lobbies? And is there any HUB where lots of people can just meet and chill?
Also: is there a good controller support, be it through the game or Steam?
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2024.11.25 18:39 Nohan07 [A VENIR] Questions au Gouvernement à l'Assemblée nationale - 26/11/2024

[A VENIR] Questions au Gouvernement à l'Assemblée nationale - 26/11/2024 submitted by Nohan07 to AssembleeNationale [link] [comments]

2024.11.25 18:39 BiscottoIsHere Reskin weapon tied to CPM model for Multiplayer server

Hello! I'm really new to the whole blockbench/CPM thing but I was wondering if it was at all possible to have a reskinned weapon be tied to a CPM model? In other words, you have two players A and B. A's diamond sword is a normal diamond sword whilst B's would appear as a custom weapon when held by them. Would that be at all possible?
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2024.11.25 18:39 sk8rgild InkCartridges Black Friday Ads 2024

Check out the link for InkCartridges Black Friday Ads 2024. Once on the website, you'll have access to a variety of coupons, promo codes, and discount deals that are updated regularly to help you save on your purchase.
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